KUALA LUMPUR, 26 November 2019 – Ericsson expects the global number of 5G subscriptions to top 2.6 billion within the next six years, driven by sustained momentum and a rapidly developing 5G ecosystem.
The forecast is included in the November 2019 edition of the Ericson Mobility Report, alongside a range of other forecasts with an end-of-2025 timeline and communications service provider insights.
Average monthly data-traffic-per-smartphone is forecast to increase from the current figure of 7.2 GB to 24 GB by the end of 2025, in part driven by new consumer behavior, such as Virtual Reality (VR) streaming.
With 7.2 GB per month, one can stream 21 minutes of HD video (1280 x 720) daily, while 24 GB would allow streaming 30 minutes of HD video with an additional six minutes of VR each day.
The report also projects that 5G will cover up to 65 percent of the global population by the end of 2025 and handle 45 percent of global mobile data traffic.
Fredrik Jejdling, Executive Vice President and Head of Networks, Ericsson, says: “In 2020, 5G-compatible devices will enter the volume market, which will scale up 5G adoption. The question is no longer if, but how quickly we can convert use cases into relevant applications for consumers and enterprises.”
In South East Asia and Oceania, it is expected that by 2025 4G (LTE) will have become the main mobile technology, with 63 percent of the total number of subscriptions even though today WCDMA/HSPA is still the region’s dominant technology. 5G subscriptions are expected to make up 21 percent of all subscriptions in the region by 2025.
According to another of Ericsson’s recent studies, ‘5G for business: a 2030 market compass´ report, up to USD$700 billion (RM2.96 trillion) of 5G-enabled business-to-business (B2B) value by 2030 can be addressed by service providers, which corresponds to 47 percent of the total 5G-enabled market expected to be served by ICT players.
For South East Asia and Oceania, the total projected value of 5G-enabled digitalization revenues is forecasted to be at USD$88 billion (RM334.40 billion) by 2030, and of this, up to USD$41 billion (RM171.38 billion), or almost half, can be addressed by telecoms service providers.
Given its current momentum, 5G subscription uptake is expected to be significantly faster than that of LTE. The most rapid uptake is expected in North America with 74 percent of mobile subscriptions in the region forecast to be 5G by the end of 2025. North East Asia is expected to follow at 56 percent, with Europe at 55 percent.
Other forecasts include total number of cellular IoT connections now seen at five billion by the end of 2025 from 1.3 billion by end 2019 – a compound annual growth rate of 25 percent. NB-IoT and Cat-M technologies are estimated to account for 52 percent of these cellular IoT connections in 2025.
Ericsson now has more than 75 commercial 5G agreements or contracts with unique communication service providers, of which 23 are live networks.