Global economic activity is likely to remain unbalanced this year due to the COVID-19 pandemic and its various impact which cast a shadow over health systems and economies, said Moody’s Investors Service (Moody’s), reported Bernama.
In its Global Macro Outlook 2021-2022 (February 2021 Update), it expected real gross domestic product (GDP) in all G-20 countries to grow compared with last year but noted that some countries would take longer than others to return to full capacity.
Governments’ approach in dealing with the virus, including for vaccines, would be key in suppressing the virus’ spread and reducing fatalities.
“While new vaccines are likely to become available and production of existing vaccines will scale up, lack of cooperation among countries means that some nations without an assured supply of effective vaccines or production capacity will struggle to overcome the pandemic,” said Moody’s.
Meanwhile, it said the G-20 economies would collectively grow by 5.3% in 2021 and by 4.5% in 2022, after the 3.3% contraction in 2020.
However, it said the recovery would remain uneven and incomplete in 2021 as activity in contact-intensive sectors such as travel and tourism remain limited.
It also said the United States — whose economy advanced at a 4.0% annualised rate in the fourth quarter of 2020 — would lead the global services demand recovery in 2021-2022, boosted by enhanced pandemic control, significant additional fiscal support to the economy, and a more predictable policy environment.