KUALA LUMPUR – The pace of economic growth across Asia-Pacific (APAC) will stabilise in 2022, supporting a broad normalisation of credit conditions across sectors.
That said, risks from the ongoing pandemic and other secular trends will remain, according to a new report by Moody’s Investors Service.
“The gradual recovery to pre-pandemic output levels in APAC will reflect the reopening of economies, underpinned by rising vaccination rates, continued monetary or fiscal support that will wind down only gradually, and robust external demand fuelled by household spending, inventory restocking, and global capital spending growth,” Moody’s assistant vice-president and analyst Nishad Majmudar said in a statement.
Nishad said the developments in the US (Aaa stable) and China (A1 stable) will also be important credit drivers.
“A faster pace of monetary policy normalisation in the US would negatively affect issuers reliant on dollar financing and drive capital flow volatility.
“In China, any policy missteps in the country’s efforts to contain the impact of its property sector downturn and address social and income inequality could weaken its economic growth, with implications for the region’s economies,” he said.
Several secular trends will also continue to present longer-term credit implications for Asian issuers.
“Automation, supply chain reconfiguration and geopolitical tensions in parts of the region will affect the technology and manufacturing sectors.
“And an increased focus on carbon neutrality will be negative for the region’s export economies that are unable to achieve their own decarbonisation goals,” Nishad added.
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